Running Analysis
Sep 2024 – Present · Boston Marathon Trajectory
What This Is
This dashboard pulls live training data directly from Strava using a custom Python script and the Strava API. Every activity — easy runs, long runs, and races — is logged and processed into weekly and monthly aggregates, giving a real-time picture of where my fitness stands and where it's heading.
What It Answers
Pace trends, heart rate efficiency, weekly mileage volume, and relative training effort are charted across the full dataset. But it all comes down to one question: based on my current trajectory in marathons and half marathons, when can I run a Boston Qualifier?
Pace Trend
Monthly average pace with regression trend line
Heart Rate Efficiency
Pace vs. HR — newer runs should appear lower-right
Weekly Volume
Total miles per week
Relative Effort
Strava suffer score per month with 4-month rolling average
Boston Qualifier Projection
Current PR: 3:54:23 · BQ target: 3:05:00 (Males 40–44) · Target pace: 7:03/mi
Race History
Marathons and half marathons only — the data points used for BQ trajectory analysis
Marathons
| Date | Finish Time | Avg Pace | vs. Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | 4:42:44 | 10:38 /mi | First Marathon |
| Apr 13, 2025 | 4:11:12 | 9:32 /mi | −31:32 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 4:16:58 | 9:39 /mi | +5:46 (NYC) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | 3:54:23 | 8:49 /mi | −22:35 PR |
Half Marathons — Best Times
| Date | Finish Time | Avg Pace | Predicted Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2:05:10 | 9:33 /mi | ~4:22 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1:48:17 | 8:09 /mi | ~3:47 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1:46:58 | 8:07 /mi | ~3:45 |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1:43:24 | 7:46 /mi | ~3:37 PR |
BQ Analysis & Projection
Based on marathon and half marathon race results — not average training pace
Four marathons in 17 months tells a clear story. From a 4:42 debut at NYC in November 2024 to a 3:54:23 PR at Delaware in April 2026, the overall improvement is 48 minutes and 21 seconds — nearly a minute per month. The half marathon data reinforces it: a March 2026 PR of 1:43:24 (7:46/mi) predicts a marathon of approximately 3:37 using standard race-equivalency models, suggesting the current PR of 3:54 still has significant room to fall as marathon-specific fitness catches up to aerobic capacity.
The BQ standard for the 40–44 age group is 3:05:00 — a 7:03/mi pace for 26.2 miles. That's still 49 minutes below the current PR, but the trajectory says the gap is closing fast. If the improvement rate holds across the next two marathon cycles, a sub-3:35 is realistic by late 2026 or Spring 2027. From there, breaking 3:10 — and qualifying — becomes a matter of sustained volume and race execution rather than raw aerobic development.
The honest projection: 2027–2028. The half marathon fitness is already pointing there. The marathon just needs to catch up.